Recently, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council officially issued the “Measures for Comprehensive Evaluation and Assessment on Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality” (hereinafter referred to as the “Measures”). Widely interpreted by the market as the most stringent carbon‑management document in the past two decades, the Measures—featuring rigorous performance assessments, a 5+9 indicator system, and a one‑vote‑veto mechanism—will propel China’s dual‑carbon efforts from a phase of “soft advocacy” into a new stage of “hard constraints.”

Against the backdrop of intensifying global climate governance competition, profound geopolitical shifts, and China’s ongoing transition from old to new growth drivers, the Measures are far more than a mere environmental policy document—they represent a stringent transformation that is reshaping industrial and investment paradigms. For the petroleum and chemical industries, which occupy a central position in carbon‑reduction efforts, this poses a critical challenge that will shape the sector’s future trajectory.

Examining the current geopolitical landscape, green and low‑carbon development has emerged as a strategic high ground in great‑power competition. At the international level, despite occasional policy reversals—and even outright backtracking—by certain Western powers, green trade barriers such as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) have already taken effect, prompting a profound reshaping of global supply chains along “carbon‑footprint” lines. Failing to proactively align with green standards risks passively losing access to international markets. Domestically, the traditional, factor‑driven, extensive growth model has reached its limits, and the 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly designates “dual control over carbon emissions” as a central guiding principle. In this context, the issuance of these Measures—integrating the “dual carbon” goals into local Party and government leaders’ performance evaluations and linking them directly to personnel selection and appointment—seeks to break free from the constraints of conventional development pathways by establishing robust institutional mechanisms. This not only signals to the world China’s unwavering strategic resolve to pursue a green transition but also represents an internal self‑revolution aimed at advancing high‑quality development.

In this self‑revolution, the chemical industry’s situation is particularly thought‑provoking. As a foundational sector of the national economy, the chemical industry is both a major consumer of energy and a significant source of carbon emissions, while also serving as a key enabler for green industries such as new materials and new energy. For a long time, the industry has been confronted with the stark dilemma of “development versus decarbonization,” and the Measures offer a clear answer: without a high‑quality, low‑carbon transition, there can be no sustainable future.

The “5+9 indicator system” established by the Measures marks a fundamental shift from “dual control of energy consumption” to “dual control of carbon emissions.” This transformation carries far‑reaching implications for the chemical industry. In the past, under the dual‑control framework, some localities inadvertently imposed undue restrictions on new‑energy and high‑quality chemical projects. Now, with assessments focusing squarely on both the total volume and intensity of carbon emissions, the use of fossil fuels will be tightly constrained, and a clear ceiling on the peak of coal and oil consumption looms ahead. For a traditional industrial structure dominated by coal‑chemical and petrochemical sectors, this represents an extremely stringent constraint. Even more critically, the Measures explicitly stipulate that newly built, renovated, or expanded “high‑carbon‑intensity and high‑energy‑consumption” projects must achieve carbon‑emission offsetting through either equivalent‑or‑reduced‑emission replacement, backed by a “one‑vote‑veto” disciplinary mechanism. This means that the chemical industry’s conventional development model—characterized by indiscriminate project expansion and relentless pursuit of scale—has been consigned to history. In its place, we now see a zero‑sum game over existing capacity and a new paradigm in which carbon efficiency reigns supreme for new growth.

Faced with stringent regulatory requirements, the chemical industry is experiencing not only short-term pain but also profound opportunities for structural reconfiguration and renewed growth. The Measures designate carbon‑emissions trading as a key supporting indicator, thereby accelerating the development of the carbon market and expanding its scope. For chemical firms, the carbon market is shifting from a mere compliance tool to a powerful institutional driver. Tighter carbon‑allocation caps and rising carbon prices will make emissions a visible component of production costs. Outdated capacity, squeezed by soaring carbon‑related expenses, will be phased out more rapidly, while advanced producers that proactively invest in energy efficiency, decarbonization, green‑power substitution, and carbon capture and utilization will not only reap benefits in the carbon market but also secure valuable room to survive and thrive. As companies reshape their cost structures and competitiveness, the “green premium” will become clearly reflected in the sector’s valuation framework. This vividly illustrates how the market’s natural process of survival of the fittest is playing out under the dual‑carbon agenda.

From a broader perspective, the implementation of these Measures will shift the chemical industry from the periphery to the forefront of local governance. As “dual carbon” goals have become a political mandate under the principle of shared responsibility between Party and government bodies, local governments will rigorously enforce project‑approval thresholds and simultaneously tighten credit support for high‑carbon sectors. This necessitates that chemical companies abandon a purely compliance‑driven mindset and treat carbon emissions as a core production input and an integral part of their operating environment. Whether it is managing the full‑life‑cycle carbon footprint of products or fostering decarbonization collaboration across the upstream and downstream value chain, such efforts will be indispensable in future market competition. Meanwhile, the rapid growth of transition finance is injecting fresh momentum into the green transformation of the chemical sector; trillions of yuan in green credit will be channeled precisely into key areas such as zero‑carbon park development, hydrogen‑based substitution, and energy‑efficient technological upgrades in industry, helping the chemical industry achieve a smooth and orderly transition.

The issuance of these Measures has sounded the retreat from a high‑carbon development model and heralded the charge toward a comprehensive green transition. At this historic juncture—when global dynamics are in flux and China’s economy is emerging from its cocoon—the chemical industry must grasp the overarching trends, internalize carbon constraints as a driving force for growth, and press forward with determination in the deep waters of technological innovation if it is to remain resilient amid the twin waves of the energy revolution and industrial transformation.

(Source: China Chemical News, May 6, 2026)